Wednesday 23 September 2009

The Great Swine Strategy 2: The Rethink


It just keeps getting better, but only in a sarcastic way.

So there was the great rethink of our wonderfully bright Kingdom's swine flu strategy. Where all the decision makers got themselves together in a one-off attempt to do their jobs. Bravo. Pause for applause. And it was at this meeting of the 'minds' that it was decided to stagger the opening of schools. According to the GDN:

All secondary schools will stay closed until October 4, intermediate until October 11, primary until October 18 and kindergartens and special needs centres until November 1.

This new schedule of brain-numbing stupidity comes after a senior WHO (not the band) representative declared that keeping schools closed 'is not an option'. In fact, instead of doing any good, it would seem that delaying the inevitable until a season where oink-cough will spread more rapidly is irresponsible in the extreme. Let not this bother our decision makers though, for they have decided. God forbid we, y'know, listen to some advice. Naah. We know better. All the other countries are doing it wrong. They're stupid. They probably don't even know what a full-option S-class looks like. We on the other hand, we know our shit.

And it gets better (again, sarcastically). Much, much better. Apparently, this latest 'step' was taken to "safeguard the return of pupils to classes, particularly vulnerable groups such as young children and to alleviate pressure on the country's health services". Allegedly. But the Ministry of Health, the people charged with cleaning up the messy pandemic, have made it clear that they disagree with this decision. So, I wonder, aloud: who made this decision? Neither the WHO nor the Ministry of Health. In fact, both of these organizations, the very same institutions that logic would dictate have the most qualified opinions on this matter, disagree with our latest 'strategy'.

Now, if there was a meeting that was attended by the ministries of Health and Education and had some input from the WHO, and two of the aforementioned parties are against the new 'plan', logic dictates that the one remaining party is the party responsible. So, by using regression analysis and a bit of coin tossing, we come to the conclusion that the Ministry of Education is now Bahrain's foremost authority on health matters. And pandemics. Who would have guessed?

Whatever. This is getting old, quickly. It's clear that we have no idea, not even a faint sniff of a clue, how to handle anything that resembles a problem. Who cares who gets the blame? WHO doesn't. They offered us their advice and we roundly dismissed it. But to tell us that this plan is somehow in the best interests of the children and a responsible approach to alleviating pressure on health services when it clearly is not, well thats just a cheap lie.

Apparently the logic is that its better to be safe than sorry. Seriously, these were the words that were uttered to the GDN by an unnamed Ministry of Health official who, like anyone else with sense, thinks this plan is stupid. But is it better to be safe than sorry now and a whole bunch sorrier later because we were stupid before in a pathetic, ill-advised attempt to be safe?

The strategy, and I use the term in it's loosest form, seems to involve nothing more that thumb-twiddling until the great western vaccination is so kindly sold to us for a brutal profit. Some people, myself included, assumed that the first batch of vaccinations would be used to immunize the little kiddies before they got sent into their educational petri dishes, because of how they're high-risk, and, well, little kiddies. Perhaps then we would be able to find a nugget of logic in this series of absurdities. But no. Not a chance.

It seems that the first batch, all 40,000 doses of this entirely unproven elixir of hope, have been allocated for the pilgrims. Two doses each (even though from what I've read , only one is required) for 15,000 haaj-goers. My math is a little rusty, but what happens to the other 10,000? Mmm. I wonder. Vaccinate Important Persons perhaps?

Let it be. If someone wants to be my guinea pig, hooray for me.

If we're still playing the prevention game lets stop people entering the country. That'll help a bit. And while we're at it, close the malls. We should've cancelled eid, but it's too late now. Cinemas are a bit tight, so they're gone. Cafes too. And eateries. And public transport, because that's rather popular. And gyms. And supermarkets. Let's not let a silly thing like logic get in the way. Hell, why not just close Bahrain 'until further notice'.






13 comments:

  1. I don't know where you got your info from that WHO rep, but I've read an article on WHO's official site and here are some extracts from it.

    "Decisions about if and when schools should be closed during the pandemic are complex and highly context-specific. WHO cannot provide specific recommendations for or against school closure that are applicable to all settings."

    "The main health benefit of proactive school closure comes from slowing down the spread of an outbreak within a given area and thus flattening the peak of infections. This benefit becomes especially important when the number of people requiring medical care at the peak of the pandemic threatens to saturate or overwhelm health care capacity."

    "The timing of school closure is critically important. Modelling studies suggest that school closure has its greatest benefits when schools are closed very early in an outbreak, ideally before 1% of the population falls ill. Under ideal conditions, school closure can reduce the demand for health care by an estimated 30–50% at the peak of the pandemic. However, if schools close too late in the course of a community-wide outbreak, the resulting reduction in transmission is likely to be very limited."

    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_school_measures_20090911/en/index.html

    Even though it's more of a general recommendation, the closure of schools, at least from my POV, will be helpful, as it is very obvious that an outbreak in Bahrain will totally saturate our health system. It is also important to note that an outbreak on a nationwide scale would at least hamper the normal functioning of any health system whether its in Bahrain, Saudi, UK etc..

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  2. Ahh... my information was sourced from that wonderful oracle of newsworthiness... the one and only GDN. The WHO official spoke anonymously. They probably made him up.

    http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=260358

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  3. WHO article incomplete, continuation:

    Policies for school closure need to include measures that limit contact among students when not in school. If students congregate in a setting other than a school, they will continue to spread the virus, and the benefits of school closure will be greatly reduced, if not negated.

    Economic and social costs
    When making decisions, health officials and school authorities need to be aware of economic and social costs that can be disproportionately high when viewed against these potential benefits.

    The main economic cost arises from absenteeism of working parents or guardians who have to stay home to take care of their children. Studies estimate that school closures can lead to the absence of 16% of the workforce, in addition to normal levels of absenteeism and absenteeism due to illness. Such estimates will, however, vary considerably across countries depending on several factors, including the structure of the workforce.

    Paradoxically, while school closure can reduce the peak demand on health care systems, it can also disrupt the provision of essential health care, as many doctors and nurses are parents of school-age children.

    ...

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  4. Conclude from WHO note that decision to close schools should be extreme and to be used in conjunction with a group of measures to slow-down pandemic progression. Was it the case here? don't think so. Always tught ministries of education should promote education not close schools...

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  5. @The Dude

    I remember reading such article which prompted me to look for it on WHO's site but found this instead.

    @Anon

    Yes closing schools must be used in conjunction with group of measures, yet in no way does it clearly say nor imply that closing schools 'should be extreme' as in an extreme measure. It showed that it helps, at least generally, and that it also has negative economic and social effects that should be taken into consideration. Additionally, I think that the MoH made recommendations to MoE regarding the closure of schools and MoE probably went ahead with it without much discussion.

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  6. @Anon

    You will agree that if the closing of schools had took place in conjunction with a group of measures like recommended by WHO and that included for example closing the causeway then it would be quite obvious that situation was extreme...

    Personally believe we are far from a situation requiring the schools to close (in fact close-open-close for many). Am a guest here and have nothing against anybody (on the contrary) but well no, think this move was not a very clever one..

    @Dude

    Congratulations - very nice articles. With no doubt The Best satiric ones ever had the opportunity to read here. With your talent I am sure you can do something about it! May THE FORCE be with you ;)

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  7. Take a look at my interpretation of our ultra governments plan: http://www.seekingmyliberty.blogspot.com/2009/09/oh-no-they-didnt.html
    It has sketches detailing our governments extreme intelligence!

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  8. :-) the way you describe almost see those enlightened chaps already on 'Les Guignoles de l'info' (French satiric from Canal+, quite popular). Maybe you should try something similar here? well, doubt you can easilly get prime-time on Bahrain TV but a kind of a regular clip somewhere.. All the best!

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  9. Visit www.swineflubh.webs.com - a website dedicated to the latest developments of the swine flu madness in Bahrain and a venting space for all your concerns...

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  10. So, it appears current status includes:

    - Bahrain School is open, they never closed. Ahhh,, OK - they are run by US and of course, no virus will *ever* dare to touch a school run by US?? :-)

    - St Christopher made a brilliant move: Kindergarten kids were promoted to primary in order to start school sooner. An opinion article on the GDN (I know Dude.. but it's the only one we have!) today quoted on this:

    =============
    It seems the swine flu bug is a 'smart' virus which not only fully comprehends the school grading system, but can tell the difference between a primary school student and a kindergarten pupil.

    Apparently all we have to do to fool it is to move kindergarten or infant school pupils into the primary section - and the bug will stay away!
    ....
    =============

    So, let's promote all kids to University grade in order to start schools straight away?!

    It's sad but you will agree that all this does not look very serious.

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  11. On a statistical approach if those school closures and phased reopenings become fashion there are 80% probabilities for senior pupils to get 40% of the classes, 40% probabilities to get 20% of classes for the middle ones and no more than 10% probabilities of getting 5% classes for the most juniors (after promotion of course :-)

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  12. Wow. Statistics. It's been a while... Appreciating the feedback.. keep the comments coming. However, just a note - quite a few of these comments seem to be from the same anonymous who may be better distinguished from some of the other, rather annoying people who share that name. Perhaps a unique tag of sorts, y'know, like a name, or a series of characters, would held differentiate. Either way, thanks for the support.

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  13. This is very sad.
    My siblings are starting at October 18, but I start at October 4. Why? I approve of the above posts saying that this is a new smart virus that can distinguish between pupils.

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